As most of the rest of the world, the Corona Virus or COVID 19, is dramatically affecting our business and personal lives. As I write this post (March 3, 2020, 4PM EST), headlines like Coronavirus death toll rises to 9 in Washington State are in the news. On television, many newscasts show the total number of cases world-wide and in the US and the total number of deaths in each. This information is very disconcerting.
I am not an epidemiologist, but I do spend a lot ot time studying data. While it may be argued that the above information is important, as a statistician, I think the most important metric doesn't seem to be reported. This metric is the total number of active cases versus time as shown in Figure 1 below. To me this is the most valuable data, as it shows that the total number of active cases is declining. This news is certainly encouraging.
Figure 1. The Number of Active Cases of the Corona Virus is Declining as of 2 March 2020.
To be clear, this situation could change tomorrow, however, as of yesterday the number of active cases is declining.
I'm sure we all hope this declining trend in active cases continues.