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Be Careful Interpreting Market Value Data

  • Indium Corporation

  • Folks,

    I was interested when I saw recent growth projections for the world of the electronics market. Quoting from the article:

    "BCC Research (, the world market for electronic products was worth some $1.8 trillion in 2006, a figure that is expected to increase to $2.0 trillion in 2007 and $3.2 trillion in 2012, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% over the next 5 years."

    Wow! I remembered recent (2006) numbers from Prismark being more like $1.5 trillion in 2010. What happened? I suspect it has to do with the considerable drop in the value of the dollar. See the graph above. The Euro has gained about 26% on the dollar since May of 2005. The world production of electronics could have remained stagnant in this period and, to a first order, it would have seemed to have grown considerably if reported in declining dollars.

    So sad to say it, but the dollar hasn't been stable enough to be used to measure meaningful growth rates over the last few years. The BCC projected growth rates however, assume a stable currency I'm sure (or I hope!)

    Dr. Ron